In the end, the piece does not come up with a mathematical model for calculating that possibility. It could happen. It might not happen. It's not certain either way.
The article focuses almost exclusively on Trump facing prosecution for state crimes, although his opponent in the presidential race has said he would not prevent it from happening on the federal level. The chance of Trump facing criminal trial in New York City is almost certainly more than a remote possibility.
There's just too much public evidence to indicate Trump has indeed been involved in serious financial crimes and fraud. As well, he is an unindicted co-conspirator in the felony that sent his former attorney to prison.
The chances of Trump being prosecuted in a state court before the election are probably fairly slim. If he's not reelected (and let's hope that's the case), then he would be treated like an ordinary defendant after January 20 and could not plead that he was too busy being President to go on trial. If he is re-elected, then he'd fight like mad in court to delay the prosecution until he left office.
If convicted, would Trump be sent to prison? I think that's somewhat less likely than him being prosecuted and found guilty. White collar crimes are often punished only with fines, particularly if the defendant has never been convicted before.
But if he is convicted and sentenced to a period of incarceration, I suspect the Secret Service could successfully argue prison would be too dangerous for a former President. Trump would then be allowed to serve his sentence in home restriction.
Yes, he would still be a convicted felon, the first former President to face a criminal prosecution. That alone would be satisfying and a stain on his legacy for all time.
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