A Major Case

The Supreme Court announced yesterday it would hear three important LGBT job discrimination cases in the 2019-2020 term (details here and here), and most likely the three cases will be combined into one appeal. Federal appellate courts have ruled both that federal law prohibits and does not prohibit discrimination against LGBT persons, and that conflict in rulings likely encouraged Supreme Court consideration of the matter.

The Obama administration supported prohibiting LGBT discrimination but Donald Trump's administration has said that LGBT discrimination is not illegal. Remember when Trump promised to be pro-LGBT?

When Anthony Kennedy was still a justice on the high court, he was fairly reliably pro-LGBT in his decisions. With his retirement and replacement by an arch-conservative, there's no longer that reassurance. Justices Alito, Thomas, and Kavanaugh almost certainly will rule against LGBT rights. Gorsuch may or not join them and the same for Chief Justice Roberts.

But that could well be overly optimistic. I could very easily see this coming down 5-4 against LGBT rights.

Of course, Congress could quickly fix this by amending the law to specify that discrimination based on sexual orientation or LGBT status is prohibited, but that won't happen with a Republican-controlled Senate and White House. There would be hope for change after the 2020 election if Democrats take the White House and both houses of Congress.

The decision in this case will likely not be announced until summer 2020, right in the middle of the election season. Hopefully it will be an issue motivating Democrats and progressives to the polls.