The Accused

Late last week, Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh was dogged by reports that a letter was circulating amongst senators from a woman alleging that he had sexually assaulted her in high school.

Over the weekend, the controversy rocketed to the top of the news when the accuser spoke publicly and revealed her identity in a story exclusively broken by the Washington Post (link here). She provided extensive detail on her allegations and also noted that she had been in therapy following the alleged incident and that she had passed a polygraph test administered by a former FBI agent.

Not surprisingly, a number of senators stepped forward -- both Republicans and Democrats -- and said the ongoing confirmation process for Kavanaugh must be put on hold until the FBI investigates and reports on the allegations.

The political journal Roll Call published a timely article yesterday afternoon (link here) with the title "Three Ways Kavanaugh Nomination Could Play Out After Accuser Speaks."

The first is that either the White House or Kavanaugh himself will pull the nomination. The second is that the vote is delayed until the matter is investigated. The third is that the scheduled vote will still take place this Thursday.

I don't think Trump will pull the nomination. He has a long history of inflexibility to the point of being self-destructive. I don't know enough about Kavanaugh to speculate about whether he will withdraw.

I think the delayed vote is a real possibility. Six of the Republican votes needed to confirm would come from female Republican senators. Delaying gives them and others breathing room. Hence, I think the third scenario -- no change in the scheduled vote -- is not particularly likely. Members of Congress instinctively kick the can down the road whenever they can, and a delay would achieve that.

Of course, there are many other reasons to opposite Kavenaugh other than on this issue; however, none of them have any chance of happening. So this is basically the only game in town right now; hence, the end result must be Kavenaugh does not become the newest Supreme Court member.

Presidents historically have nominated for moderate replacements when a Supreme Court nomination fails. If Kavenaugh is not seated on the Supreme Court, hopefully Trump will follow the precedent established by his predecessors.

This will certainly be an eventful week. Stay tuned.