The Simplest Explanation

The philosophical theorem Occam's Razor tells us that the simplest explanation is often the right answer. To that end, I offer here the simplest explanation as to both why Donald Trump is so utterly adoring of Vladimir Putin and whether Trump has been compromised by Russia as well as why he refuses to release his tax returns.

It is well known and documented that Trump heavily relied on massive debt to fund his real estate and other ventures. His six bankruptcies also attest to a common debt structure he used -- balloon financing.

Balloon financing is not like consumer loans you and I might secure, which require both the entire principal and interest to be paid over the life of the loan. Balloon debt is simply interest-only financing for a fixed period of time.

So Trump would, for instance, borrow $200 million, pay only the interest over a set period of, say, seven years, and then have to pay back the entire principal at the end of that term. This is usually done by refinancing the debt.

But refinancing isn't always possible, because of higher interest rates, tighter lending rules, a recession, business management, and many more reasons. Hence, why Trump filed for bankruptcy six times and defaulted on loans many more times -- he couldn't meet his obligations mandated by the balloon debt. The clock ran out.

With time, Trump's commercial credit rating got worse and worse. No American bank or lender would finance him. He turned overseas where he still had difficulty.

Except when it came to Russian lenders. They were happy to help. Sometimes they did this by laundering funds through Deutsche Bank. Sometimes they loaned to him directly. His son confirmed in a business magazine interview that Russia was their primary source of funds.

The largest lending institutions in Russia are all partly owned by the Russian government or partly or fully owned by Russian oligarchs who are close allies to Putin. Trump has close to $400 million in loans through a Putin oligarch-owned lender, Deutsche Bank, as well as undisclosed hundreds more through other Russian lenders, with totals running into the billions.

This is why Trump won't criticize Putin and tries to turn the US into a more Russia-friendly direction. He's afraid Putin will not refinance his balloon debt when it comes due.

This is also why Trump won't release his taxes, because his complex tax return would show Russian financing sources.

So the question remains -- is Trump compromised by Russia? The answer is obvious: yes. They hold his debt on a stick that they dangle in front of him. Behave or else. And he does. He owes hundreds of millions to a hostile foreign power. That debt allows Russia to control him to some degree.

This is the simplest explanation about Trump and Putin and his taxes. And Occam's Razor thus tells us it's most likely true.