03 October 2020

An Eventful Day

A lot happened yesterday after the late night report that Donald Trump and Melania both tested positive for coronavirus. Yesterday brought a flurry of news about other prominent Republicans who have also now tested positive, including senior White House aides and two US Senators.

Trump was taken to Walter Reed Army Medical Center yesterday afternoon. He walked out of the White House to the waiting helicopter but, unlike he usually does, he did not speak to the media.

According to the Washington Post, that was done out of fear of what waiting until later might entail (details here). The optics of a President wheeled out the White House in a gurney hooked up to an IV would be devastating to his already crippled campaign.

Trump's health declined significantly yesterday, according to many press reports. He's running a fever, has had difficulty breathing, and feels very tired and fatigued.

At 74, male, obese, with elevated cholesterol, lacking in exercise, prone to rages, and with poor sleeping and eating habits, Trump has a number of risk factors that make Covid-19 significantly more dangerous for him than the average adult male.

The White House is reporting that his condition is stable, but as recent history has demonstrated, a coronavirus infection can become very serious very quickly, as happened with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson earlier this year. Trump was said to be "stable" last night but worsened significantly yesterday.

He might not sicken further and be released in a few days and back on the campaign trail in a few weeks. Then again, he could survive but be seriously sickened, hospitalized for a lengthy period, and spend weeks unconsciousness on a ventilator. Michael Pence would be acting President.

Or he could die. As The Atlantic notes (link here), "Trump is at high or very high risk for severe disease. Eight percent of Covid-19 patients ages 65 to 74 die from the disease. Those 75 to 84 are at far higher risk: 18 percent die." And his chances worsen because of his risk factors noted above.

His diagnosis and now potentially serious illness have arguably all but ended his chances of being reelected. After spending eight months repeatedly dismissing the virus as far less of a danger than it actually is, he now looks staggeringly foolish. Already nearly a million of Americans have voted. More are doing so every day. The news now, with an infected and hospitalized President, is what will influence votes and the outcome, not what happens two or three or four weeks from now, after a significant percentage of America has already voted.

The fact that a number of high level Republicans are also now infected, quite possibly at a White House event Trump hosted last weekend, makes it look even worse as voting continues. Trump and top Republicans have denied reality since January. And now reality has landed a brutal roundhouse right in their faces.

As Politico noted in an excellent piece yesterday (link here), Trump has spent much of the last eight months trying to divert the American public's attention away from the coronavirus. "Now Covid-positive, it will prove almost impossible for him to steer public attention away from his biggest political liability." That is if he can even campaign.

The election is exactly a month from today. Registration closes in some states today and tomorrow and on Monday. It's absolutely urgent that you register right now if you haven't done so already.

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