Breaking

Donald Trump lost a critical test case yesterday (details here) about whether he can ignore congressional subpoenas -- and instruct others to do so -- after a federal judge in Washington ordered the President's accounting firm to turn over eight years of his personal and business financial records to the House Committee on Oversight and Reform. The judge also denied Trump's attorneys' request to stay his ruling pending appeal.

Trump said yesterday that he would nonetheless appeal, which must come quickly because this is an action on a court ruling and not a final verdict, thus giving it an expedited schedule. With that said, given yesterday's court order, the President now has no power to demand that his accountants not turn over the subpoenaed documents.

Because the subpoena was served on the accountants and not Trump himself, he is in a weaker and more awkward position to block their release. Further, guiding legal precedent is almost solidly against him.

Because he is the President, an appellate court may well grant a temporary stay pending review, but that likely will not last long. Given that third-party challengers very rarely succeed in blocking subpoenas on appeal, Trump has almost no chance of prevailing here. In sum, Trump is probably fucked.

More will definitely shake down on this issue and soon. Until then, stay tuned.